[ ] SIENA

Stimulation Initiative for European Neural Applications

Esprit Project 9811

Case Studies of Successful Applications

Short-Term Load Forecast for German Power Utility

Company background

Bayernwerke AG, located in Bavaria, Germany, is one of the largest utility in Germany. Precise Load Forecast solutions using ANN are required for optimizing their energy management system.

The problem

A main concern in Power Distribution is the prediction of the future electrical load requirements for a given region in order to plan the power generation optimally with minimal loss and costs. The load required by a region is affected by factors including the general trend, time dependent factors (seasons, holidays) weather, and special events. This predicted power system load is the quantity for planning sufficient generation, spinning reserve and standby reserve.

Neural network application

The idea was to inprove the precision of the forecast by applying neural network technologies and create a modular system. The forecast is a short-term prediction which makes possible predictions for the next 24 hours on a hourly basis (or more frequently if data is available). The forecast can be done for each day up to three weeks in the future.

Benefits

When compared to conventional methods , this method based on neural networks and modular system architecture performes the best. The prediction error ranges between 1 - 2 % whereas multiple regressions, for instance, gives around 2 - 3 % error. The difference in terms of absolute power is in the terms of 10 MW. Furthermore, the time required for calculating a forecast is less than one second and forecasts for special days (legal and religuous holidays) are possible.

Generalization

This application proves training to be possible for a neural network to forecasting tasks. It can be trained to forecast the future electrical load requirements for certain regions, taking into consideration changing factors with great significance for the electricity demand, such as time dependend factors.

Contact person

Mr. Selmayr, Bayernwerke AG. Bayernwerkstraße 39, D-85757 Karlsfeld. Phone: +49 8131 88 1 Fax: +49 89 1254 330.

References for further reading

Yurtsever, K.: Neural networks, the New Technology Applied to Power System Control. In: Proceedings EUROSIM 95, Vienna, Austria.